Every October, the same email lands in my inbox from owners of seasonal hotels. The summer is banked, the bookings for November look thin, and the question is blunt: should we close for the winter, or keep the lights on? In 2026 the question is harder than it was five years ago. Labour costs more, insurance costs a lot more, and in many destinations winter demand is stronger than owners remember, because airlines keep adding seats into the cold months.
I have spent 18 years in revenue management, a large part of it inside international five-star resort operations where the closing date was a board-level decision, not a hunch. The mistake I see most often is that owners compare winter revenue with the total cost of the hotel. That comparison is wrong, and it closes hotels that should stay open and keeps open hotels that should close. In this article I show the test I actually use, the costs that never stop, a fully worked example with the arithmetic, and the middle option most owners never price: closing part of the building.
Should a hotel close for the winter?
A hotel should close for the winter when the contribution it would earn by staying open, meaning net room revenue minus variable costs minus the cost of the minimum open crew, is worse than the one-off cost of closing and reopening. Total costs, debt and property tax do not belong in that test, because a closed hotel still pays them.
A seasonal closure is a planned period, usually eight to sixteen weeks, in which a hotel stops selling rooms, releases or redeploys most of its staff and puts the building into a protected, low-energy state. It is different from a renovation closure, where the building is still busy, and different from a short emergency closure, where nothing is planned.
The wrong question owners ask is "does winter make money?" Almost no seasonal hotel makes a full profit in January. The right question is "do we lose less money open or closed?" That framing changes the answer more often than you would think. When I review a closing plan, the first thing I do is cross out every line that the hotel pays in both scenarios. The owner's spreadsheet usually shrinks by half, and the decision becomes visible.
The three buckets of winter cost
Every cost in a seasonal hotel falls into one of three buckets, and in 2026 the split between them matters more than ever.
- Costs you pay either way: mortgage or lease, property tax, most insurance, licences, system subscriptions, minimum heating to protect the building, security and the general manager in most cases.
- Costs that exist only if you open: the minimum crew (front desk cover, night audit, housekeeping supervisor, maintenance), full-building energy, guest-facing marketing, OTA commissions and the variable cost of every occupied room.
- Costs that exist only if you close: winterising plumbing and pools, the reopening deep clean and water flush, re-hiring and re-training staff, reactivating distribution, and the revenue lost on shoulder dates around the closing window.
Only the second and third buckets enter the decision. The first bucket is real money, and it is painful, but it is the same in both columns.
Bottom line: In 2026, judge a winter closure on avoidable costs and avoidable revenue only, never on the hotel's full cost base.
Hotel winter closure costs that never stop
Hotel winter closure costs that never stop include debt service, property tax, insurance, licences, minimum heating, security and core management. CBRE's Trends in the Hotel Industry data shows insurance premiums rose 17.4 percent and property taxes 4.3 percent in 2024 for U.S. hotels, and a closed hotel pays both of those increases in full.
Owners often expect a closure to "save the hotel's costs." It saves some of them. CBRE's sample of about 2,600 U.S. hotels showed total revenue up 2.3 percent in 2024 while expenses above gross operating profit rose 4.1 percent. That gap is the margin squeeze every owner feels, and it is also why the winter decision gets reopened each year: the costs that disappear when you close (mostly labour and energy) are the ones that have risen fastest.
Labour is the swing cost
According to CBRE's expense data reported in July 2026, wages and benefits now account for roughly half of full-service hotel operating costs, and compensation is up 22.1 percent since 2019 even though hours worked fell 7.4 percent. In the same CBRE Trends sample, salaries, wages and benefits combined rose 4.8 percent in 2024 alone. So when you price the minimum winter crew, use your 2027 wage rates, not last winter's payroll.
The Hospitality Asset Managers Association's Fall 2026 Industry Outlook Survey, published on 19 October 2026, found that 44 percent of asset managers rank wage increases among their top concerns and 38 percent name labour availability. Labour availability is the cost owners forget. If you release your best housekeeping supervisor in November, you may not get that person back in April, and the replacement costs time, training and guest scores.
Insurance can change when the building is empty
Here is a cost that sits in the "only if you close" bucket and catches owners out. Under the widely used ISO commercial property form, a building counts as vacant unless at least 31 percent of its floor area is used for its customary operations, and many property policies limit or remove certain cover once a building has been vacant for a set period, commonly 60 days. Some insurers offer a seasonal occupancy endorsement that allows the normal closed season, but usually only if the building is fully winterised. Call your broker before you set the closing date, not after the first frost.
If you want to see how these fixed costs translate into a nightly target, my earlier piece on calculating hotel break-even occupancy walks through the same cost split for a full year.
Bottom line: A closed hotel still pays its debt, taxes and most of its insurance in 2026, so closing only saves the labour, energy and variable costs that the open crew creates.
Is winter demand stronger in 2026?
Winter demand in 2026 is stronger than most seasonal hotel owners assume, especially in leisure destinations with growing air access. INSETE counted 11.8 percent more international seats into Greece for winter 2025/26, and Malta's hotel association reported five-star occupancy rising from 65.7 percent to 68.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.
I am not saying every market has a winter. I am saying the default assumption, "nobody comes after October," is out of date in many places, and owners who still close on the same date they closed in 2015 should test it.
What the 2026 data shows
In the United States, CoStar's August 2026 figures put national occupancy at 66.4 percent, ADR at $161.78 and RevPAR at $107.43, a 2.0 percent RevPAR gain on August 2025. September was stronger: in the week ending 19 September 2026, CoStar recorded an ADR of $179.30, the highest for any week on record. CBRE's midyear 2026 outlook forecasts U.S. RevPAR growth of 2.5 percent in 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2027, with ADR growth of 1.7 percent in both years. That is slow growth, but it is growth, and it is driven by rate.
In the Mediterranean, the extension of the season is visible in the airline schedules. INSETE's Airdata Tracker counted 6.33 million scheduled international seats into Greece between November 2025 and March 2026, with March up 14.8 percent and German seats up 9.8 percent. In Malta, the Malta Hotels and Restaurants Association's survey with Deloitte reported a 7.7 percent rise in RevPAR for 2025, and the government highlighted that the biggest percentage growth in arrivals came in the winter months.
Why the market average can mislead you
National and regional numbers hide the hotel that sits on a beach with no airport within two hours. Seat capacity helps a city or an island with an airport. It does not automatically help a 40-room inn at the end of a coastal road. Before you trust the trend, look at your own winter enquiries, your website traffic for December to March, and what your competitors who stayed open last winter actually charged. A rate shop of open competitors on winter dates tells you more than any national report.
Bottom line: In 2026, check your own winter enquiries and your open competitors' rates before assuming winter demand is still too weak to justify opening.
Hotel winter closure math, worked through
Hotel winter closure math compares three numbers: the contribution from staying open, the one-off cost of closing and reopening, and the contribution from a partial opening. In my example, a 60-room hotel at a $95 winter ADR needs about 22 percent occupancy before staying fully open beats closing, and a partial opening beats both.
This is an example, not a client. The numbers are round on purpose so you can replace them with your own. Take a 60-room seasonal hotel deciding whether to close for 120 nights, from mid-November to mid-March.
The assumptions
- Available room nights: 60 rooms x 120 nights = 7,200.
- Winter ADR: $95.
- Channel mix: 40 percent of bookings through OTAs at 18 percent commission, so the average commission on all room revenue is 7.2 percent and net ADR is $88.16.
- Variable cost per occupied room (cleaning labour, laundry, amenities, card fees): $28.
- Minimum open overhead for the whole building (24-hour front desk cover, maintenance, full-building heating, systems and winter marketing): $1,050 a night, or $126,000 over 120 nights.
- One-off cost of closing and reopening (winterising, reopening deep clean and water flush, retention payments for key staff, re-training): $30,000.
Scenario A: winter occupancy of 30 percent
At 30 percent, the hotel sells 2,160 room nights. Room revenue is 2,160 x $95 = $205,200. Commissions take $14,774, leaving $190,426 net. Variable costs are 2,160 x $28 = $60,480. Subtract the $126,000 open overhead and the winter contribution is +$3,946. Closing would cost $30,000. Staying open is better by $33,946.
Scenario B: winter occupancy of 22 percent
At 22 percent, the hotel sells 1,584 room nights. Room revenue is $150,480, commissions $10,835, net $139,645. Variable costs are $44,352. After the $126,000 overhead, the winter contribution is minus $30,707. Closing costs $30,000. The two options are now a coin toss, separated by $707.
The stay-open threshold
Each occupied room contributes $88.16 minus $28, or $60.16. Staying open has to recover the open overhead of $126,000, less the $30,000 you would have spent closing, so $96,000. Divide $96,000 by $60.16 and you need 1,596 room nights, which is 22.2 percent of 7,200. That is the number that matters: below roughly 22 percent occupancy at a $95 ADR, this hotel should not stay fully open.
| Option (example hotel, 120 nights) | Winter result at 30% demand | Winter result at 22% demand |
|---|---|---|
| Stay fully open, all 60 rooms | +$3,946 | minus $30,707 |
| Close fully, reopen in March | minus $30,000 | minus $30,000 |
| Close one wing, sell 30 rooms | +$23,127 | minus $4,307 |
The partial line uses a lower open overhead of $780 a night ($93,600 for 120 nights), $6,000 to winterise the closed wing, and at 30 percent demand it deducts $7,219 for 120 holiday room nights the smaller inventory could not sell. Notice that in this example the partial option wins at both demand levels. That is not a law of nature, but it is a pattern I see often enough that I always price it.
For the per-room cost line, my guide on hotel cost per occupied room explains how to separate the truly variable cost from the overhead that hides inside it.
Bottom line: In this 2026 example the full-opening threshold is about 22 percent occupancy at a $95 ADR, and closing one wing beats both extremes.
Partial closure versus full shutdown
Partial closure means a hotel keeps selling a reduced block of rooms, usually one wing or a few floors, while shutting down the rest of the building. Partial closure is often the best winter option because it keeps the hotel bookable and staffed with a core team while cutting the energy and labour cost of the empty space.
The U.S. Small Business Administration's energy guidance for lodging has long recommended closing entire wings or floors during low occupancy and cutting lighting and HVAC in those areas. The logic is simple: heating a whole building for 15 guests costs nearly as much as heating it for 50. Concentrate the guests and the building runs on a fraction of the energy.
Forms of partial opening
- Wing or floor closure: sell one block of rooms, set the rest to an out-of-service temperature, and take those rooms out of inventory in your PMS so no system can sell them.
- Days-of-week opening: open Thursday to Sunday, close Monday to Wednesday. This works for weekend leisure markets, but it needs a crew willing to work a compressed week.
- Window opening: close for the deepest weeks only (for many Northern Hemisphere resorts, the middle of January to late February) and stay open over the festive period and half-term holidays.
- Service reduction: keep all rooms but close the restaurant, spa or pool and sell a room-only or bed-and-breakfast rate.
What partial closure costs you
Partial closure has a price. On your few strong winter dates, such as New Year's Eve or a local event, the smaller inventory caps revenue. That is why my example deducts lost holiday room nights. It also requires discipline at the front desk, because the temptation is to put a walk-in guest in the closed wing "just this once," which reheats the whole floor for one night.
Bottom line: For most mid-sized seasonal hotels in 2026, price a one-wing winter opening before choosing between fully open and fully closed.
Hotel winter closure risks owners miss
Hotel winter closure risks that owners miss are staff loss, water system safety, insurance vacancy limits and the effect on online visibility. Each one has a cost that rarely appears in the closing budget, and in 2026, with labour availability a top concern for 38 percent of asset managers in the HAMA survey, staff loss is usually the largest.
Staff you will not get back
When I audit a seasonal hotel's results, the spring months often show the real price of the winter closure: slower check-ins, weaker reviews and a revenue team rebuilding rate plans from memory. Losing a trained supervisor or a reservations agent who knows your regular guests is a cost even if it never shows up as a line item. Owners who keep a small year-round core, even at a loss in January, usually open faster and stronger in April.
Water and building safety
The World Health Organization notes that Legionella bacteria grow at temperatures between 25 and 45 degrees Celsius, which is exactly what stagnant water in a partly heated building can reach. Any reopening plan needs flushing and testing of the water system, not just a deep clean. Pools, kitchens and laundry equipment all need their own shutdown and restart procedure.
Online visibility while closed
On Booking.com, a hotel that closes itself is listed in the Booking.com guide to property statuses as "Closed (requested by hotel)", which hides it from travellers until it reopens. That is cleaner than leaving the property live with no availability, but it means no one can book your spring and summer dates during the closed months either. I prefer to close the winter dates on every channel and keep the future season fully open and priced, so early summer bookings keep arriving all winter.
Bottom line: Before closing in 2026, put a cost on losing key staff, budget the water system restart and keep your spring and summer dates bookable on every channel.
Closing a hotel for winter, step by step
Closing a hotel for winter should follow a fixed sequence: forecast winter demand by week, separate avoidable from unavoidable costs, price the three options, check insurance and staffing, then set dates that protect the shoulder weeks. Owners who follow the sequence in October avoid the rushed November closure that costs the most.
This is the checklist I use with owners in October and November. It applies whether you end up closing, opening or doing something in between.
- Forecast winter demand week by week, using last winter's enquiries, current on-the-books, airline seat changes and the event calendar.
- Cross out every cost the hotel pays in both scenarios: debt, property tax, base insurance, licences, minimum heat and security.
- Build the minimum open crew at 2027 wage rates and the full-building and one-wing energy cost.
- Price the one-off cost of closing: winterising, reopening deep clean, water flush and testing, retention payments and re-training.
- Calculate the stay-open threshold occupancy at your realistic winter ADR, net of commissions.
- Price at least one partial option, either a wing, days of the week or a shorter window.
- Call your insurance broker about vacancy limits and any seasonal occupancy endorsement.
- Decide which key staff you will retain all winter and what that costs.
- Set the closing and reopening dates around demand, not around the calendar month.
- Close winter dates on every channel, keep future dates open and update your website, Google listing and booking engine with the reopening date.
The dates matter more than owners expect. Many hotels close on 1 November out of habit, while their data shows a strong last week of October and a decent first weekend of November. Each extra week of good shoulder demand moves the result. For a forecasting partner that builds this week-by-week model with you, our revenue management consulting service covers seasonal opening decisions as part of the annual budget.
Bottom line: A good 2026 winter decision starts with a week-by-week forecast in October, and the closing date should follow demand rather than habit.
If you stay open, price winter like this
If a seasonal hotel stays open in winter, the pricing goal is contribution per occupied room, not occupancy at any price. Winter rates should cover the variable cost of each stay with a margin, use length-of-stay and package value instead of deep discounts, and stay high enough on festive and event dates to pay for the quiet weeks.
The worst winter I see is a hotel that stays open and then sells rooms at a rate that barely covers cleaning and commission. In my example, a $60 ADR booked through an OTA nets $55.68 after the blended 7.2 percent commission and contributes only $27.68 after the $28 variable cost. You would need more than twice as many guests at $60 as at $95 to earn the same contribution, and those extra guests bring extra wear, extra staff hours and lower review scores.
Winter pricing rules that protect contribution
- Set a floor rate equal to variable cost plus commission plus a margin, and never sell below it.
- Use minimum stays on festive and event dates, and price those nights near your shoulder-season rate, not your winter rate.
- Prefer added value, such as breakfast, a late checkout or a spa credit, to straight discounts.
- Target the segments that travel in winter: long-stay remote workers, small meetings, sports teams, crews and contractors.
- Review pickup weekly, and be ready to close an extra wing if a month comes in below the threshold.
If demand softens after you have committed to opening, my guide on cutting hotel rates when demand drops explains why the first move is rarely a price cut. And for the full rate structure behind a year-round opening, see how I approach hotel pricing strategy for independent hotels.
Bottom line: A hotel that stays open in winter 2026 should price for contribution per room, with a hard floor, not for occupancy at any rate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I close my hotel in the off season?
Close your hotel in the off season only if staying open would lose more money than the one-off cost of closing and reopening. Compare net room revenue minus variable costs and minimum open overhead against winterising, restart and staff costs. Ignore debt, property tax and base insurance, because a closed hotel still pays them.
How much does it cost to close a hotel for the winter?
The cost of closing a hotel for the winter is the debt, tax and insurance you still pay, plus one-off closing costs: winterising, a reopening deep clean, water flushing and testing, staff retention and re-training. In my 60-room example the one-off closing costs were $30,000, and the fixed costs continued in full.
What occupancy does a hotel need to stay open in winter?
The occupancy a hotel needs to stay open in winter equals the open overhead minus the avoided closing costs, divided by the contribution per occupied room. In my example of a 60-room hotel at a $95 ADR, that threshold was about 22 percent occupancy over 120 nights. Your own threshold depends on wages, energy and ADR.
Can a hotel close only some floors in winter?
Yes, a hotel can close only some floors or one wing in winter, and it is often the best option. Sell a reduced block, set closed rooms to an out-of-service temperature and remove them from inventory in the PMS. The U.S. Small Business Administration has long recommended closing wings or floors during low occupancy.
Does closing for the winter hurt a hotel on Booking.com?
Closing for the winter does not have to hurt a hotel on Booking.com if future dates stay open and priced. A full property closure hides the hotel from travellers, so I prefer closing only the winter dates on every channel while keeping spring and summer bookable, so early bookings continue arriving all winter.
When should I decide whether to close my hotel for winter?
Decide whether to close your hotel for winter in October, at least six weeks before the planned closing date. That leaves time to forecast demand by week, call your insurance broker, agree staff retention and update every channel. A rushed November decision usually closes too early and loses the strongest shoulder weeks.
When should a hotel hire a revenue management consultant for a seasonal decision?
A hotel should hire a revenue management consultant when the closing decision is worth more than the fee and nobody inside can build a week-by-week forecast. Below about 25 rooms with one clear season, an owner can run this test alone. For larger or multi-season hotels, Alaa Elhadi and Revenuenaire run the analysis month to month.
My Verdict
Most seasonal hotels make the winter decision on the wrong numbers. They compare January revenue with the full cost of the building, see a loss and close. The right test removes every cost paid either way, then compares the loss from opening with the cost of closing and reopening. In my 2026 example, the line between the two was about 22 percent occupancy, and a one-wing opening beat both extremes. With airlines adding winter seats and wages still climbing, that line is moving every year, so it deserves a fresh calculation every October.
If you are weighing your closing dates for this winter, book a call with Alaa's team and we will run the full, partial and closed scenarios on your own numbers before you commit.
